In this high-velocity exchange, Radio Jon Liedtke joins host Gene Valaitis to dissect the surreal geopolitical collapse of the Iranian regime in February 2026. Following the devastating “Midnight Hammer” and “Epic Fury” strikes, Liedtke characterizes the current leadership as a “digital ghost” and an “animatronic Ayatollah,” suggesting that the IRGC is using AI-generated deepfakes to mask a total decapitation of the state’s top-tier command. He masterfully employs the “Toolbox” metaphor to describe the regime’s failure, noting they spent two trillion dollars on the “paddock” of global terror while the “foundation” of the country—its very soil—rotted away.
The analysis pivots to a bleak economic and environmental reality where Tehran is literally sinking by a foot every year due to depleted aquifers. Liedtke describes the “foreclosure” of the regime’s iron lung as U.S. Marines sit off Kharg Island, threatening the terminal that handles 90% of Iran’s oil. With the Rial crashing to 1.6 million against the dollar, Liedtke argues that the perpetual war has become the IRGC’s only life support, a desperate attempt to avoid explaining Day Zero to a population living under black acid rain and crumbling infrastructure.
Transcript (Gemini Generated):
Host (Gene Valaitis): Another great storyteller here on the show we love him, Jon Liedtke is popping by again this morning. Good morning.
Guest (Jon Liedtke): Good morning, Gene.
Gene: I always—I always love it when I get your emails and you say “Here’s what I got for you this morning” and the headline is “Absent Ayatollah: Tehran’s Weekend at Bernie’s meets Jurassic Park.” Now, you know what the price of gas is going up and up on the early and late editions of the latest on the news, first thing I do is tell you the price of gas in the Niagara region when you should go to a gas station, when you should stay away and we did it again this morning. So, it’s all about gas and diesel. So, explain from your perspective, what is happening in Iran? Is there a new leader?
Jon Liedtke: You know, the mystery right now, Gene, is reaching a breaking point. We’re nearly a month into this war that has essentially erased the entire top tier of Iranian leadership and continues onto the second tier, yet the IRGC is still pretending like the lights are on. From last year’s “Midnight Hammer” strikes in June that crippled the nuke program to this year’s “Epic Fury” hits, the US is using the full weight of the military to impose their will—but yeah, here’s the thing: we don’t know who’s running Iran. The US killed the Supreme Leader last month and we haven’t exactly met the new guy. We can’t even say “new boss, same as the old boss” because the new boss might be an AI deepfake video. He hasn’t been seen in public since before attaining this new “Ayatollah-ship”—and I don’t know if that’s the right word, I don’t know if there is one—and the only evidence he’s alive right now is a recently released video which could be, as I said, AI or from months or years ago. We just don’t know.
Gene: So, you’re calling this a cover-up?
Jon Liedtke: Yeah, you know, it seems a little bit like a cover-up. And it’s, again as I said, a bit like Jurassic Park. Like John Hammond, the doomed creator of Jurassic Park, the Iranian regime spared no expense, but they spent it all on the fences, not the foundation. They put two trillion dollars into the paddock that is global terror while the geological ground beneath their feet is rotting. And the park—the dinosaurs didn’t escape, they started to eat each other. And we’re seeing that happening right now between the old guard clerics and the new breed tech commanders of the IRGC. While the Ayatollah is waiting for a miracle here, the mid-level colonels are busy digitizing their stolen assets into Monero and looking for the nearest exit to get to Turkey. The fences just aren’t down, it’s beyond that—the Raptors realize that the Alpha is just a man behind a curtain with a megaphone and a failing heart.
Gene: I love how you always draw analogies between real-life events and movies. So, tell me, how is this like Weekend at Bernie’s?
Jon Liedtke: Well, much like how Larry and Richard were frantically figuring out how to prop up their dead boss in Weekend at Bernie’s to keep the party going at the beach, the IRGC is propping up their “Bernie” leader right now while the predators have finally realized the fences are down. The IRGC is attempting to mask the rumored death or disfigurement of the new Ayatollah by releasing that AI—or old “proof of life”—video that forensic analysts have largely debunked as a digital facade. And just a couple days ago, though, that came out. And so, they’re trying to look tough, but you can’t fight a war with a leader who’s being held up by a kickstand, and that’s what happens right now as they’re propping out cardboard cutouts of the guy and praising them. It’s crazy.
Gene: Now, in spite of what President Trump is saying, Iran is still lashing out. You know, we talk to Adam Zivo every day and I’ve lost track of how many number of times we’ve talked to him when he has been either A) rushing to a bomb shelter or we talk to him from a bomb shelter. It sure doesn’t sound like the regime in Iran is giving up. In fact, it sounds as if they haven’t weakened at all.
Jon Liedtke: Well, I mean, they’ve lost their entire top tier of leadership. Most of their military capabilities have been taken out. Most of their missiles have, but that doesn’t mean that there’s not still the ability for them to fight back. But what this is is an asymmetric séance, Gene. They’re trying to govern through the digital ghost of a son and the bloody legacy of a 45-year terror spree. But look at the irony of this all: the regime that claims to be the shield of Islam just this past weekend rained ballistic missiles down on the old city of Jerusalem. Fragments fell within a quarter mile of the Al-Aqsa Mosque—that’s the third most holy site in Islam. These aren’t the actions of a state steward of religion; they’ve set up an involuntary Seder—I don’t know how familiar you are with Passover—but they’ve set up an involuntary Seder for the whole country. They’re waiting for the ghost of a leader who’s never going to show up, like Eliyahu does at a Jewish Passover Seder, while they’re blowing up their own holy sites out of spite. They’ve gone from a Supreme Leader to an “Ayatollah Eliyahu”—the door is open, but he’s not showing up for either night of Passover.
Gene: Now, while this is all going on, the President of the United States is sending troops, and everybody is talking about the possibility of troops on the ground. So, what is the status of these Marines and they—they want to be—they want to be on this island and the ships still aren’t getting through? So, I mean, what’s really happening?
Jon Liedtke: If they take the Island of Kharg, that is the ultimate foreclosure, Gene. The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit is just sitting off the island right now, and that terminal handles 90% of Iran’s oil. If they take it, they’re effectively seizing the regime’s only remaining bank account. But it’s beyond just being an ATM; that is their iron lung. Without the tankers being able to move, the IRGC can’t even afford the fuel for the generators that keep the AI programs going they’re using. And the math is actually quite haunting. The Rial right now has hit 1.6 million to the US dollar a couple days ago. They’ve started to print 10-million Rial notes right now—it’s essentially the most expensive wallpaper that’s ever been made, far beyond that of what happened when the Islamic Republic took over in the Revolution in ’79. So, Iran’s propping up the animatronic Ayatollah they have right now while their assets are being liquidated by the US military at the behest of the executive.
Gene: Now, you’ve mentioned in the past that the city of Tehran is actually sinking. Now, do you mean that like literally?
Jon Liedtke: Oh yeah, no, Jurassic Park is failing, Gene. Tehran is sinking by a foot every year because underneath it is old aquifers that they have pumped completely dry. And we’re talking about land subsidence here. Imagine trying to run a war while your subway tracks are warping or your apartment buildings are cracking in half because the dirt underneath them is being imploded. This is Day Zero. This is the point where the taps go dry for good. They’re looking for a new place to move the regime—the capital—and that was before the war started. So, while the IRGC is staging rallies for a cardboard leader, Chicken Little is correct: the sky is literally falling right now. Black rain in Tehran is falling out of the sky—that’s a toxic soot from the bombed-out fuel depots falling back as acid—and the Iranian people aren’t waiting for a prophet, they just want the guys holding the cardboard cutouts to run out of ammunition before the real predators break out of the paddock.
Gene: Do you think the United States underestimated Iran?
Jon Liedtke: I think that they thought things would go a lot quicker and that Iran wouldn’t actually pull the trigger on blocking the Strait of Hormuz or that they would have had maybe more support to be able to get over it. But look, Trump has learned a very good lesson right now in what the values of hard power and what the values of soft power is. But right now, this is a classic asymmetric exit. Trump’s looking for the door, but the IRGC replaced the door with a brick wall of impossible conditions. They’ve put out five to six conditions that are like a geopolitical Hail Mary: they want guarantees that the war won’t be repeated, they want every US military base in the region to be closed—never going to happen—and they want reparations. They’re holding out their hat for a check after they started the war. This is like the joke from Liar Liar when a burglar sued the homeowner for medical bills when he got hurt breaking through the window. Jim Carrey responds to his assistant who asks incredulously what he would do as a lawyer in that situation; Jim Carrey responds deadpan: “I’d have gotten him more money.”
Gene: Yeah, no kidding. You know, when you take a look at what’s happening, it kind of reminds me a little bit of a schoolyard. President Trump says we’re negotiating with Iran, and Iran says “No we’re not,” “Yes we are,” “No we’re not,” “Yes we are,” “No we’re not.” I don’t think anybody even knows—no, really—what’s going on.
Jon Liedtke: No, I don’t think anyone knows what’s going on either, and this is the cognitive dissonance that’s at the heart of it right now, Gene. Trump is signaling he’s bored with the war, he wants out, but he’s also issuing the most violent ultimatums; he’s trying to tamp it down with a sledgehammer. The IRGC wants the war to continue because the moment the shooting stops, the people of Iran who don’t already realize it will realize that the Supreme Leader is a cardboard cutout and the country is sinking into the soil. For the regime, the perpetual war is their only life support. They’d rather rule over a blackened, lightless ruin than face a peace where they have to explain: “Where’d the water go?”
Gene: In the meantime, the price of gas continues to go up here in the Niagara region. It’s not too bad today, it’s up slightly, and it’s going to be coming down tomorrow. But in the end, what’s the final word on this one, Jon?
Jon Liedtke: Well, the new day will be arriving soon, but so far the groundhog hasn’t come up and seen his shadow, but mostly probably because he’s made of corrugated paper and afraid of Hellfire raining down in the form of Tomahawk missiles. This “Weekend at Bernie’s” shtick is failing as the guests are questioning, “Hey, is that guy actually dead?” The gates of Jurassic Park have been breached, the Raptors are approaching, all the VHSs in this metaphor are unspooling, Gene, and there’s not enough Blockbuster rewinders to put it back together.
Gene: All right, great job this morning, Jon. Sure do appreciate it.
Jon Liedtke: Thank you so much for your time.
Gene: And we’ll talk to you next Tuesday morning.
Jon Liedtke: Sounds great.
Gene: There he goes, Jon Liedtke. One of the great storytellers in the show.
This aired on 610 CKTB
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